Betting on a Fall

Wednesday, 7th February, 2007  - Richard Farmer 
Treasurer Peter Costello will he happy this morning that the Reserve Bank has kept interest rates steady and hoping that in the months to come that the seven out of 24 economists surveyed by financial news agency Bloomberg are correct in predicting a fall before year’s end. Costello knows that his chances of becoming the next Liberal Party leader, and perhaps the next Prime Minister, depend on economic conditions remaining favourable.
He certainly does not want the three economists who told Bloomberg this morning that the next interest rate movement will be up to prove right. The government, and Mr Costello, could live with the majority of 14 in the no change brigade getting it correct provided other things go their way.
In the view of the betting market, things are now getting very close. The Crikey election indicator based on the odds offered by the country’s three leading bookmakers this morning has the Government a 51% chance to Labor’s 49%. Labor has improved from 39% back in the first week of December.

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