A Queensland election prediction
The pollster is telling us this morning that Queensland is having two separate elections tomorrow with each likely to have a different winner. Down in the south east, according to Galaxy published in The Courier Mail, Labor's on the way to victory. The pollster estimates the two party preferred share at Labor 54% (up 1.7 points on the last election) to the LNP's 46%. Out in the regions the LNP lead 52 per cent to Labor’s 48 per cent, a swing towards the LNP of 1.1 per cent.
Put the two parts together and Galaxy has Labor leading 52% to 48% on the statewide two party preferred vote with the following primary vote shares:
Really complicating matters is that high predicted vote for other than the two major parties. Up north Galaxy estimates this "cross bench" share is running at 37%. Galaxy has had a go at distributing all those preferences but the prediction is little better than a lottery.
For what it is worth the betting market is little changed from where it was when the campaign started. Labor are ever so slight favourites - given a 53% chance to the LNP's 47%
My two bob's worth? I'll stick with my belief that the Annastacia Palaszczuk team would not have called an early election without being reasonably confident.
What do you think? Make your prediction below
Put the two parts together and Galaxy has Labor leading 52% to 48% on the statewide two party preferred vote with the following primary vote shares:
- Labor 37%
- LNP 35%
- One Nation 12%
- Others 16%
Really complicating matters is that high predicted vote for other than the two major parties. Up north Galaxy estimates this "cross bench" share is running at 37%. Galaxy has had a go at distributing all those preferences but the prediction is little better than a lottery.
For what it is worth the betting market is little changed from where it was when the campaign started. Labor are ever so slight favourites - given a 53% chance to the LNP's 47%
My two bob's worth? I'll stick with my belief that the Annastacia Palaszczuk team would not have called an early election without being reasonably confident.
What do you think? Make your prediction below
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