Be wary of polls showing a Queensland election victory is likely for Labor

So Sky News tonight has Labor leading in the Queensland election.

Well believe that if you want to. But first a word of caution. Just have a read of this story by the Owl reporting on Rachtel's effort on the eve of last Saturday's Northcote by-election in Victoria:
Northcote by-election an epic opinion polling failure for the CFMEU and ReachTEL. The prediction there was that Labor would get a 54% share of the two party vote when it ended up with 44%.
That this Queensland election is a difficult one to predict the result of is suggested by the Reachtel finding that Labor and the Liberal National parties between them have less than a two thirds share. Anywhere near the 36% figure for One Nation, Katter and miscellaneous others and Saturday night will be a real lottery.
The betting markets tonight have it near enough to even money take your pick and I would not argue with that while leaning slightly towards Labor being returned. As I wrote a fortnight ago:
What will be on the day the election is called is what will be when the votes are finally counted.
So what was likely the day Labor's Annastacia Palaszczuk pressed her starting gun?
There's one very big clue to that. Premiers don't put their job at risk months earlier than necessary if they think they are going to lose. Labor's pollster, her own instinct and that of the party officials around her, must have been confident that now was the right time for victory.
I'll stick with that assessment.
The one thing from the Sky News coverage that did interest me recently was this:




Providing a billion dollar loan to a foreign owned coal miner might win support in parts of North Queensland but it is unlikely to be a vote winner elsewhere.

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