Will there or won't there be an early Australian election?

With the Liberal leadership speculation more or less on hold until federal parliament comes back for the budget session, it's time for that other favourite bit of speculation to get another run. Yes. Will there or won't there be an early election.

Prepare yourself for much more like that. The subject is irresistible for former pollies, tweeters and the media alike when they have nothing significant to sermonise about.
So let me give you my two bob's worth.
I do not know of a Prime Minister who called an early election that he or she thought their government would lose. Malcolm Turnbull (or some other Liberal should the challenge speculation end up coming true) is unlikely to be different.
At the moment defeat would be probable.
Perhaps the May budget with some well targeted income tax cuts might change the mood but I would not bet on it.

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